Ark Invest: A Revolutionary Blood Test Could Lead To Predictive And Prescriptive Analytics, & More

Currently used in 500 million tests annually in the US, the Complete Blood Count (CBC) provides descriptive data relative to population averages, but it misses the individual insights necessary for precision medicine. In other words, the CBC is a low-value diagnostic tool that overlooks the transformative potential of longitudinal, personalized phenotyping. Accordingly, Medicare and Medicaid reimburse CBCs at only ~$10 per test.

Recently published, a groundbreaking study in Nature reveals¹ that CBC metrics are much more predictive in the context of haematological setpoints—patient-specific baselines that typically are stable for decades. Those setpoints include hemoglobin levels, red cell distribution width (RDW), and white blood cell count (WBC) that are like biological fingerprints and predict outcomes more effectively than population-based thresholds. Deviations in hemoglobin setpoints are excellent at predicting mortality from all causes, while RDW is correlated to atrial fibrillation and WBC to Type 2 diabetes. This shift from averages to individual profiles heralds a paradigm shift in diagnostics.

To unlock the CBC’s full potential, our research suggests that diagnosticians should shift from static, one-off tests to longitudinal phenotyping that can flag patterns associated with early health risks. Key to the analysis are single-cell genomics technologies—such as 10x Genomics’ scRNA-seq and Standard BioTools’ CyTOF solutions—that analyze blood samples at the cellular and molecular levels. Those methods could transform CBCs by revealing the detailed molecular changes behind setpoint deviations.

Cost is the main hurdle. Single-cell genomics’ costs would have to drop ten-fold to match the current CBC price point of ~$10 per test. The learning curve associated with unit growth will continue to drive the price point. During the past 15 years, as single cell genomic tests have scaled one million-fold, the cost has dropped by ~40,000x.² Given the 500 million in CBC tests per year in the US, the market potential for advanced single-cell analysis is vast.

The combination of routine CBCs with single-cell genomics and AI-driven analytics could shift health care toward predictive and prescriptive medicine. A healthcare system in which deviations from personal baselines trigger timely interventions, targeted treatments, and better outcomes could reduce drug and other healthcare costs.

The CBC is ripe for reinvention, an opportunity that could transform not only diagnostics but also healthcare economics, bringing high-value, personalized medicine to millions of people. The transformation should begin now.